Wednesday, April 8, 2020

In the crosshairs......

7:00 am - Wednesday - April 8th - Wittmann, AZ - 52° F, 56%  humidity, wind 3 mph out of the northeast.......clear, blue skies with a few clouds today and a forecast high of 74° F.  On this day in 2012.......

......we were in Savannah, GA for the first time......we dry camped in a field at Red Gate RV Park as they had no sites available.  We still owned our 2002 Thunderbird....I really miss that car!

We haven't left the Newell House property since we drove into COSTCO last Thursday, however, on Tuesday we had an appointment at Walmart to pickup our online order.....mostly greens, and 12 pm.  We left around 11:30 am arriving at the Walmart pickup area around 11:55 am......

.....just as last time, we parked in Reserved 1, called the number to advise them we were there, and within minutes an associate appeared with our order.....

.....within a couple of minutes our groceries were loaded, and we are on our way home.....

.....hmmmmm.......the last time we were here the associates were just wearing gloves, but this time they had face masks, and no gloves.....go figure?

We were gone less than 60 minutes when we rolled up to the Newell to disgorge our groceries.  TLE discovered that she had inadvertently ordered 2 of everything, which was not her intent, so we have a lot of greens, and veggies, and enough 1/2 and 1/2 to last a month....hope it lasts that long!

During the course of the afternoon, and early evening we had two more 'Zoom' calls with my siblings, and my mother.  She is in a semi comatose state right now......asleep most of the time, and waking up for short periods of time.  She is comfortable, and appears to be hearing what her children are talking about.  Several of us told stories from our childhood.  Even though we are meeting 'virtually' it is the first time in years we have all been together in the same conversation for a very long time, and that is good.

After our final 'Zoom' call was over around 7:30 pm we were invited to sit by the outdoor fireplace with our hosts and talk about things other than my mother's declining was a nice distraction.....thank you Tom and are the best!

With a full moon rising out of the east the night sky lit up.....the moon was so bright it was hard to look directly at it.....crazy!

TLE and I remain in the asymptomatic COVID-19 here in the rural back roads of Wittmann, AZ......thank God.  The IHME (The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) whose computer models our collective governments (Federal, State and Local) have been using to make policy lowered the expected number of expected U.S. deaths from this virus from 83,000 down to 60,415......this is just a week after they forecast 100,000 to 240,000 U.S you all know there are not even 100,000 deaths world-wide right now attributed to the Chinese virus. Just 3 short weeks ago they were forecasting over 1,000,000 U.S. deaths!   We are beginning to see signs that we may have already, or may be near the U.S. apex of this battle.....again way earlier than forecast by the IHME.  Look, I am not alleging a conspiracy, or even incompetence.......what I am saying is no one really knows what to expect, or how to design a computer model that is even remotely accurate......we/they don't know what we/they don't know.  The hospitalization forecasts are still being wildly exaggerated (again I do not believe intentionally) by the IHME models, but they are getting more accurate as they continue to modify their algorithm.  Nonetheless, policy continues to be made based on total guess work.....guess work that is shown to be wrong on a daily basis.  We will never really know whether it was really necessary to crater our economy, and put 20 million people out of work.....there is no way to know the unknowable.  This experience should stand as mute testimony to the fact our government's power to protect us from a pandemic has limitations.  If you rely on the expertise of the 'bearded' government experts more than your own common sense you will get burned almost every single time.

Based on what we do know, and what is glaringly obvious after a few weeks is that if you live in a large population center you should seriously consider moving to a more rural locale, right?  What's the point of making a lot of money working and living in the big city if you cannot protect your family from a pandemic?  That's just common sense, right?  How many will do just that will probably not be many....some will get the lesson and move, and others who know they should will not because it is easier to keep doing what they are doing and hope the next pandemic will not put them in the crosshairs once again.

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  1. About 10 years ago we crossed the 50% line where more humans live in cities than not. People, worldwide, are living in cities for a reason.

    This Virus is ugly but it's not (historically) unusual and the reason that people will live like that (in cities worldwide) has not changed.

  2. My prayers continue to be with you all and your mom. I am so inline with you on this whole COVID-19 thing. One of the things that is ticking me off is that they are counting deaths as COVID if the persona tested positive but was not the cause of death. They could have died from a heart attack, but if they test them before or after death and found that had COVID they are putting the cause of death as COVID. This is so wrong and skewing the numbers inaccurately as to how many are actually dying from having COVID. Stay well friends.

  3. I for one am very glad that the statisticians at the University of Washington have revised their estimates to a less frightening level. As they accumulate more data, the models may become more accurate predictors. At least that is my great hope. I live in a small town of 30,000, at least 80 miles from any larger city in any direction, and we now have 8 cases here, 3 in hospital and 3 recovered, with the others being able to stay home. No deaths so far. This is new territory for all of us. Even those of you enjoying the freedom of the open road. Very glad you are staying well and happy.